Litecoin Price Predictions 2018 Analysed
Bitcoin is the most valuable cryptocurrency in mid-2018, currently with a market cap of $108 billion at the time of writing this. Litecoin is in 6th place with a market cap of $4.3 billion. There are countless posts on the topic of Litecoin price predictions, many highly speculative with questionable sources, and several more researched and objective.
Below we analyse a number of Litecoin price predictions in 2018 more objectively, where we give the common arguments for Litecoin's price increasing and decreasing.
Common arguments for Litecoin's price increasing:
- Fears of Bitcoin splits. There's a lot of controversy around how Bitcoin should be developed going forward, with areas like on-chain/off-chain scaling and block size heavily debaited. Litecoin doesn't seem to be affected by the same debaits, so development on Litecoin can happen much faster than Bitcoin. Some claim that top 10 market cap coins will grow because of this in the short-term, with related arguments like Bitcoin price dropping if a fork of it becomes too popular (Bitcoin Cash is often mentioned as a contendor), or even an altcoin like Litecoin.
- Bitcoin price increases. Counter to the argument of an altcoin replacing Bitcoin some day, many argue that altcoin prices are tied to Bitcoin's price, and so if Bitcoin's price is expected to increase over the coming years altcoins like Litecoin will also increase in price. Specific aspects like Bitcoin Futures and popularity of exchanges like Coinbase are mentioned as factors driving Bitcoin's price up.
- Litecoin is very fast. This was a common argument for Litecoin's price increasing over the coming year, in particular emphasising that Litecoin is faster than Bitcoin, and so it may increase at a faster rate than Litecoin. This part is true, where Bitcoin's block time is 10 minutes, and Litecoin's block time is 2.5 minutes, so a Litecoin transaction would be sent faster than Bitcoin. Given the block time is currently 4x faster than Bitcoin, 4x as many block confirmations can be made when depositing, and so even though Litecoin has less hashpower (a common argument for why Bitcoin should be used is the risk of double spend attacks on coins with less hashpower), more confirmations can be done on Litecoin decreasing the chance of a double spend attack. Be aware that coins such as Nano and Stellar Lumens are much faster than even Litecoin though, where they use very different consensus mechanisms.
- Litecoin has strong leadership. This is a common long-term claim for Litecoin's price increasing. Charlie Lee is the creator of Litecoin, a former software engineer at Google and director of engineering at Coinbase. He's currently on the Litecoin Foundation's board of directors after he decided to quit his day job. The core development team of Litecoin does seem to be much smaller than Bitcoin's though, with much less activity on their GitHub repo compared to Bitcoin (development of both coins is done open source, so should be visible on GitHub, although some discussions suggest this lack of activity is because of Litecoin's development approach).
Common arguments for Litecoin's price decreasing:
- FOMO in December 2017. In December 2017, Litecoin's price increased sharply from around $100 to as high as $356. Many claim that because it increased so much and caused many new investors to buy Litecoin and then lose it in the following months, that there will be a stigma around crypto in general in the short-term causing crypto prices to continue decreasing through 2018. Some claim that this will end at some point in the second half of 2018, with others claiming it could last years.
- Crypto regulation. Throughout 2018, regulation on cryptocurrencies has become much more strict, with countries such as Japan and South Korea blocking anonymous crypto investments entirely. If this continues, most altcoins may continue to decrease in price.
- Bitcoin adoption. In mid-2018, even after significant interest earlier in 2018/2017, many people still don't know what Bitcoin is. Even those that do often don't understand that there is more than one cryptocurrency. So many argue that because of Litecoin's name, where it doesn't contain 'Bitcoin' in it like for example 'Bitcoin Cash' does, public perception of it could slow down adoption, where people don't buy Litecoin because they don't know what it is.
Algorithmic Litecoin price predictions
A number of websites claim to be able to predict Litecoin's price several weeks/months from now, and even up to 1-5 years in the future, based on historical data. Popular algorithmic predictions:
- WalletInvestor: This website uses machine learning to try and predict cryptocurrency prices, offering a range of potential future prices over certain date ranges. For example it estimates Litecoin's price will be between $170 and $250 by the end of 2018 based on its machine learning analysis of past data.
- CryptoGround: This website applies a 'deep learning algorithm on the historical data of LTC', offering price predictions based on this historical data. As of the 11th July 2018, it forecasts an increase of 16% over the next month, 109% over the next year, and 391% over the next 5 years. Based on their algorithm the price won't 'decrease or fall or drop in long term'.
Be aware these algorithmic predictions were added here on the 11th July 2018, so if the price has dropped since then it's obvious they were very wrong (Litecoin is currently $77). Even if the price has followed them for a month or two, be aware certain scenarios could trigger a significant price drop.
Technical analysis Litecoin price predictions
There are various websites and traders offering Litecoin price predictions based on technical analysis, using things like chart patterns as a basis. Popular predictions based on technical analysis:
- Money flow. CoinCheckup offers an interesting analysis of what would happen if certain types of money were to be moved into Litecoin, for example if all money in checking/current accounts were to be moved into it. Depending on market share and money type, this suggests that Litecoin's price could drop to as low as $20, or increase to as much as $9,141 over the coming years.
- Moore's law. This is an interesting analysis, where based on the principle of Litecoin's price doubling every year, Litecoin could reach as high as $4.8k by 2024. This is a very speculative prediction compared to others on this list.
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